How Georgians And Russians Celebrate Their Anniversary

South Ossetian warIn case you'd missed it, the Georgian-Russian war celebrates its first anniversary, and suitably so by engaging in a blame-game over territorial disputes like children in a sandbox:

"We are waiting for another war," said Dzhumber Basharuli, a 50-year-old farmer, whose home was reduced to a smoking shell by artillery during the conflict.

The Russian Foreign Ministry Tuesday claimed Georgia has provoked skirmishes along the boundaries of its breakaway regions. In response, Russia put its 1 million-strong military on high alert.

Georgian soldiers and officials, meanwhile, say Moscow-backed separatists have launched sniper, grenade and mortar attacks against undisputed Georgian territory.

Unverified chatter, of course, on both sides. EU does have monitors over in the region to observe what's going on, but aren't allowed through to the critical areas of dispute. What's important to remember is the fragile nature of the current "peace" in the region. Both parts are blaming each other for stirring up conflict, and we may point fingers and say that's nonsense, but remember how the war began: Claims of Russian peacekeepers being shot at, and Georgia responding that it was simply defending itself. And so a war broke out.

Russia aims a particularly heavy charge at America for supporting Georgia, especially in connection to the recent blame game going on. For those of you who don't know, America supports Georgia in a lot of ways:

Russia on Wednesday accused the United States of quietly rearming Georgia a year after Russian forces crushed the ex-Soviet state's US-backed military and warned it would respond accordingly.

On a visit to Tbilisi on July 23, US Vice President Joe Biden admitted that Washington, which equipped and trained Georgian forces prior to the war last August, was working on "maintaining" the Georgian military.

The United States has long supported the goal of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to lead his country away from its centuries-old dominance by Moscow and toward membership in NATO and Western political institutions.

And rightly so, because it's a vital geopolitical corridor between energy markets in Central Asia and Europe. Additionally, America is working together with the EU to help former Soviet blocs to enter the European political sphere, meaning a migration from planned economy, corrupt authoritarianism, and poor public policy. The more of Caucasus and Eastern Europe we infiltrate, the more relationships we establish to help fight back against the problems looming in the East.

Putin shirtlessRussia, understandably, doesn't like this, because it's nearing the end of its era and will therefore use any method to prove it's not weak before it descends into demographic and economic hell. So any military muscle-flexing, like a shirtless Putin riding horses, is simply for show:

A senior Russian general on Wednesday brushed off American concerns about two Russian submarines spotted off the East Coast of the United States, saying the patrols were routine and suggesting that the U.S. Navy carried out similar missions near Russia.

"I don't know if there is any news in this news for anyone," said Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of staff of the Russian armed forces. "The fleet shouldn't sit on its hands and be idle."

Asked at a news conference about the submarines, Nogovitsyn drew a comparison to the resumption of the long-range bomber missions. "This is our right. We got tired of flying circles on our routes and started strategic flights," he said.

So, to sum this up: The Georgian-Russian anniversary is here, and we're seeing a fragile blame game coupled with Russian nuclear subs skimming the Atlantic. What are we to make of all of this? I'd bet on theory (5) from this list supplied by Hot Air, combined with a small but not insignificant belief in (4):

A few possibilities off the top of my head for What This Might Mean in addition to the NYT’s “Bulava missile” theory. (1) Russia wants to see how much The One will let them get away with, just as Biden predicted would happen last year. (2) Russia’s pissed at Biden for his crack a few weeks ago about their economy “withering” and is flexing some muscle in response. (3) Russia’s looking to expand its presence in the western hemisphere more generally, which explains its naval exercises with Venezuela in December. (4) Russia’s gearing up to make another move on Georgia and is putting The One on notice that they’re not to be trifled with when they do. (5) Russia’s got a fee-vah and the only prescription is more bare-chested Putin photos, and a display of military strength in America’s backyard makes for nice optics on the front page tomorrow next to Vlad’s pecs. You’re free to vote for more than one theory — they’re hardly mutually exclusive — but as of right now I’m leaning towards number 4.

No one in this conflict wants war; neither Russia nor Georgia can afford it. Still, this will never change the fact that everyone wants to boost their mojo on the empire arena.

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